There is also a slim chance of Pakistan making it
Shiva Jayaraman12-Oct-2024After New Zealand’s win over Sri Lanka with 15 balls to spare, there’s more clarity on what the teams in Group A need to do to qualify for the semi-finals. Only two more matches remain to be played from Group A. India will take on Australia on Sunday and New Zealand will play Pakistan on Monday. New Zealand’s net run rate (NRR) currently stands at 0.282 and is still well below India’s NRR of 0.576. However, India face the tougher challenge of playing the defending champions, who are on a ten-match winning streak. Here’s how things could play out in Group A. Both India and New Zealand win, they tie with Australia on six points. The two teams with the best NRR go through Both India and New Zealand lose, bringing Pakistan also into the equation as well. The team with the best NRR from among India, New Zealand and Pakistan joins Australia in the semis One of India or New Zealand lose their last match sending the other team into the semi-finals on six points, along with AustraliaWhile the third scenario is straightforward and doesn’t involve NRR, here’s a lowdown on what the teams need in the first two scenarios.Both India and New Zealand winIf the first scenario plays out and both India and New Zealand bat first in their respective games, then New Zealand will have to win by at least 17 to 18 runs more than India’s win margin against Australia, depending on what the scores are. For example, if India beat Australia by 10 runs, then New Zealand would have have to beat Pakistan by 27 to 28 at least, depending on what these teams score.Related
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There’s a possibility, however slim, that Australia are knocked out if they suffer a heavy defeat at the hands of India. If India beat Australia by 61 runs or more runs after posting 150, then Australia’s NRR will slip below India’s. If India win by exactly 61 runs, then New Zealand will have beat Pakistan by 77 or more if they bat first or with at least 58 balls to spare if they chase to go through as the second team.Both India and New Zealand loseIf India bat first and New Zealand chase, then a one-run win for India will require that New Zealand win with 14 to 16 balls to spare depending on the scores. If India chase against Australia and secure a last-ball win, then New Zealand will have to win by 19 to 20 runs if they bat first. If New Zealand also chase, they’ll have win with 14 to 15 balls to spare. An indicative table of margins is given below.